Monday, March 17, 2008

It won't be a brokered convention

I'm back from Japan.

Starting on August 25th is the Democratic National Convention in Denver. At some point there will be a vote, and since there are two candidates, that first vote will produce a majority. Maybe some delegates will hold out for Edwards or Kucinich and need to be placated -- they are unlikely to be enough to require even a second ballot.

A brokered convention a la 1968 is impossible. What everyone is worried about is the necessity to broker a deal *before* the convention, in order that the presumptive candidate can take on John McCain. This is a mess the Democratic leadership made for itself. Could nobody imagine this close a race? They should have planned better.

Close races are exciting. The media love them, more than they love either candidate. As much as possible they will tear the front runner down and build the underdog up until they are even. An even race is suspenseful, it's a *story*, it makes money for everybody. The evaporation of Guiuliani, Romney (remember Fred Thompson) et al., means that there's even more media pressure to keep the Democratic race even.

That's why it's going to come down to Denver.

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